MARKET VALUE METHODOLOGY

How Jitcar estimates market value

A market value on Jitcar is a statistical estimate built from our own current dealer-feed inventory. It is not an appraisal, an offer, or a verified savings claim. That is why every deal tier is labeled est.

Which vehicles are compared

We form comparison cells using model year, make, and model. When a trim can be normalized consistently, the normalized trim becomes part of the cell. Drive and body-style words such as AWD, 4WD, sedan, and SUV are removed from the trim bucket so equivalent trims are not separated by formatting noise.

A cell must contain at least 10 comparable vehicles. Vehicles below the configured cash floor, quarantined feed records, non-live listings, vehicles without mileage, and non-used inventory are excluded.

How the estimate is calculated

Within each cell, Jitcar fits advertised price against mileage with a Theil–Sen estimator. It uses the median of pairwise mileage slopes, which is less sensitive to a few unusually high or low asking prices than ordinary least squares. Large cells use a deterministic sample capped at 50,000 slope pairs so the nightly run remains bounded and repeatable.

We never estimate outside the cell's observed mileage range. A cell is withheld entirely when its mileage span is under 5,000 miles, its fitted price rises with mileage, its depreciation slope is implausible, its fitted values leave the observed price bounds, or its median absolute percentage error exceeds 25%.

What the gap and deal tiers mean

The market gap is the estimated market value minus the vehicle's advertised price. A positive gap means the car is listed below the estimate; a negative gap means it is above the estimate.

The percentage and dollar tests must both pass. If an estimate or tier does not pass every applicable gate, Jitcar shows no market claim at all.

When values change

The model runs after the nightly inventory import. Each published value stores the algorithm version, comparison count, and computation time. As live inventory, mileage, trims, and asking prices change, the next successful run may change or remove an estimate.

Important limits

Dealer asking prices do not capture every difference in condition, options, history, taxes, financing, or local demand. Use the estimate as one shopping signal and inspect the vehicle and deal terms before making a decision.